Date: July 23, 2008 (Wednesday)
Time: 12:30 - 14:00 (sandwich lunch from 12:30 –12:45; seminar begins at 12:45)
Venue: Seminar Room 5, LG-1/F, Laboratory Block, Faculty of Medicine Building, 21 Sassoon Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong

Abstract:
The use of antiviral agents has been considered in recent years as an important component in mitigation/ containment strategies for potential pandemic influenza caused by high pathogenic strains such as H5N1. However, most research for mitigation/ containment strategies relies on the antiviral efficacies evaluated from limited data of clinical trials. Which efficacy measures can be reliably estimated from these trials depends on the design of the trials, the scale of the trials measured by both population size and secondary attack rates (SAR), and the methods. Project investigators propose a Bayesian framework for modeling the influenza transmission dynamics within households. This Bayesian framework takes into account asymptomatic infections and is able to estimate efficacies with respect to viral infection, pathogenicity and infection with disease. The investigators use the method to re-analyze two trials of oseltamivir, and make comparison between published results and existing data. The study found significant prophylactic efficacies but no therapeutic efficacies for oseltamivir.

Bio-sketch:
Dr Yang is a staff scientist in the Biostatistics and Biomathematics Program in the Division of Public Health Sciences at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington. His primary research interest is in the statistical and mathematical analysis of infectious disease data and intervention studies. He is currently co-investigating two projects funded by the National Institute of Health on statistical methods for estimating vaccine efficacy and effectiveness, and the control of bioterrorist and emerging infectious disease threats.

Presentation file