First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modelling impact assessmentPublished on The Lancet, 08 April 2020
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With strict control measures implemented in China, the daily reported cases have fallen to nearly zero in most areas outside Hubei province. Most cities across China have begun to resume business even as COVID-19 continues to spread globally. A team of experts from HKUMed studied the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus outside Hubei province while strict control measures were in place to inform the steps needed to prevent a second wave of infection. The study results published in a leading medical journal, The Lancet, explained how a rapid outbreak would re-emerge in China with relaxed control measures. Key takeaways:
The study called for a better understanding of how people travel and interact, and then adjust when to restart the economy accordingly. Keeping a close watch on how the virus spreads will ensure that the rate of infections is kept within the limits that healthcare systems can cope with. |
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